Wednesday, July 31, 2013

My MLP of the Day: ICF


IShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF) holds the shares of large real-estate investment trusts. It channels the C&S Realty Majors Index.

My 5-year Yahoo chart of ICF shows a reasonably steady up trend in total returns since the market lows of 2008-2009. See:

My 3-month chart suggests ICF is now in a pullback that may create a buying opportunity for bottom fishers. ICF has played a starring role among MLPs paying out generous flows of income to investors. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ICF&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m20,m50,m100&a=m26-12-9,r14&c=

Never forget this: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.


For lots more on becoming a DIY portfolio manager in small daily bites, do visit my website:

There, think of my text as class lecture and   my links as homework. 

4 in 5 in U.S. Face Near-Poverty


The economy has been deteriorating since 1970, 80% of Americans are said to be in or near poverty, and many local businesses are disappearing. See:

What’s more, 57% of American workers surveyed reported less than $25,000 in life savings, and 28% say they have no confidence they will have enough money to retire comfortably.

Meanwhile, the rich are getting richer, Forbes reports. See:

And there’s not much bright light in America’s economic future.
I keep seeing new evidence of America’s rush to the future in the loss of jobs to automation. See:

For example, my supermarket urges self-checkout with a machine that talks to me, telling me what to do first and what to do next. And my car is washed and waxed and dried by equipment at the automated carwash a mile down the road from my house.

U.S. tax law makes it easy for the supermarket to recover the money it paid for the automated equipment, making it less costly than keeping a cashier on its payroll.

Increasingly, cars and other expensive goods—and services, including robotic surgery—are provided in part or whole by automated equipment. That means fewer and fewer jobs—not in the distant future but a trend under way right now. See:

The automobile industry is leading the world’s manufacturers into increasingly automated assembly plants. See:

America’s jobless problem is only in part explained by mistakes in political and economic decisions made since 1970.  See:

Economically, the future doesn’t look good. As long as people have money to buy stuff with little or no human involvement, manufacturers will make more and more and more money by paying fewer and fewer people to do work. Corporate stock will be sure to rise in value and price as ever-fewer customers can find the money needed to buy the products produced by the corporations. The unemployed poor don’t buy much.

Henry Ford foresaw the problem early on, in the very beginnings of his assembly lines. Before automation became  a social problem in the making of his cars, he saw the solution: Make it possible for workers to buy a Ford of their own.  He raised wages, and his factory parking lots gradually filled up with recently purchased Ford motor cars. 

In our automated future, how will America’s dwindling workforce obtain the money to buy not just cars but anything that costs money? The automation problem has barely come clearly into view, and already we’re becoming a jobless nation. How to buy even life’s necessities when your income falls to zero? Must you sell  your food stamps to the highest bidder?

I wish I had all the answers, but I do have one. Learn to invest. When you buy a company’s common stock, you become a part owner. Stocks, like most other securities,  pay dividends and thus provide cash that you can convert into food, housing, healthcare, education, movie tickets, ball-game admissions, long weekends away from home, and eventually long and longer vacations.

Fortunately, some others are exploring the disappearance of jobs and trying to find solutions. See:

Your job as a DIY manager of your own investment portfolio will give you important work to do and a skill to teach your kids and grandkids. As the companies whose stock you own become richer and richer, your dividend income will increase and the stocks you own will become increasingly valuable family assets.

How will you learn to invest? This blog is one small part of the answer. Think of what you are reading here as a lecture in a how-to-invest course. Think of the accompanying links as your homework. Between those two resources, you’ll find much or most or possibly even all of what you need to know to be self-sufficient and wealthy in a jobless, automated society.

As the rich get richer, you will become among them, and you will save gas, time, and annoyance by working at home and supervising yourself. 

Here’s a good first step for Day 1 of your new job:

For $29, learn how to invest as a member of the not-for-profit American Association of Individual Investors (AAII.com). See what you’ll get for the money at:

As I’ve pointed out in my first 100+ blog posts, the Internet presents loads of how-to-invest content. So, there’s no shortage of good material to supplement what you get from AAII.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

My MLP of the Day: ALDW


Alon Partners, LP Common (ALDW) is a recent newcomer to the securities industry. Its profile at Seeking Alpha:

My 6-month Yahoo chart for ALDW shows breathtaking ups and downs with an outstanding buying opportunity in mid-July 2013.

My 3-month chart’s MACD evaluation suggests consideration of an immediate acquisition, though not for the risk-averse.

A consensus of Yahoo’s stock analysts rates ALDW as a buy.

Never forget this: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.



MLPs: Master Limited Partnerships


MLPs are publicly traded partnership securities that offer investors an opportunity for tax-favored income flow from energy infrastructure. See:

Harry Domash of Dividend Detective lays out just about everything you need to know about MLPs. He recommends discussing MLPs with your tax advisor before investing.  See:

Yahoo has lots of information about MLPs. Start here:

The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) is an exchange-traded ETF that channels an infrastructure index of its own creation. See:

An MLP screener is maintained by Alerian. See:

Research Magazine devotes a special issue to MLPs. Jane Wollman Rusoff’s feature story (MLPs: A Place in Every Portfolio) describes MLPs as ”conservative investments that offer consistent, stable income through distributions that have the additional benefit of growth.” See:

Monday, July 29, 2013

My ETF of the Day: UCC


This suggestion is only for experienced DIY portfolio managers who can tolerate dramatic up and down moves.

ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC) is a leveraged and nondiversified ETF that shows price results equal to 2x the daily price performance of the Dow Jones Consumer Services SM Index. See:

As noted in my accompanying post, UCC gained double digits in the last 3 months, this YTD, in the last 12 months, and in both the last 3 and 5 years.

My 5-year Yahoo chart for UCC shows a reasonably steady up trend for UCC price per share since the market lows of 2009, though with brief buying opportunities in 2010, 2011, and in June 2013. See:

I think my 3-month chart suggests a continuation of UCC’s long up trend provided we don’t get a big negative surprise this week. A lot is going on just now. See my 3-month chart:

Never forget this: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.
You’re invited to visit my blog at:

ETFs Rather Than Stocks?


ETF Guide has an excellent presentation on the comparative pros and cons of individual stocks and ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
Quickly, ETFs provide a single acquisition of a security providing that might equal or surpass the diversification gained by buying a dozen or more stocks.
See:

If you seek income flow (as we retired folk tend to do), look into VYM (Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF).
If you are a risk-averse investor, you need to know that the ticker symbols presented here in boldface are leveraged and thus considered riskier than the others.
All ETFs named show double-digit total returns for the last three years through June 30, 2013.

These two ETFs show average annual double digits for the last 3 months, 2013 to date through June 30, the last 12 months, and both the last 3 and 5 years: QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ) and UCC (ProShares Ultra Consumer Services). Both are leveraged to run 2x the daily return of the index it represents. 

The following ETFs were up double digits in the last 3 months, the year to date through June 30, the last 12 months, and the last 3 years:
BHH, MVV, OTR, RSU, UKF, UVU, UWM, VO, VOT, VTI, VYM. Those shown in boldface are leveraged.

For a detailed listing of exchange-traded funds, see:

Also, ETF Guide measures ETFs against mutual funds, ETNs, and closed-end funds. See:

Sunday, July 28, 2013

My Fund of the Day: GG


Goldcorp (GG) is profiled for free by Yahoo here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GG+Profile

My 5-year Yahoo chart for GG shows a big drop in the price of the company’s stock in 2008, a subsequent recovery into 2011, a deterioration since then, but an uptick in recent days in what may prove to be an outstanding buying opportunity in the months and years ahead. See:

My 3-month chart shows the recent losses in Goldcorp’s stock and the up trend since late June 2013. See:

A majority of Yahoo’s stock analysts rate GG as a buy or a strong buy:

Never forget this: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.
To read my blog posts, go to:

What Value Line Says About Gold


Writing for the ultra-prestigious Value Line, Sigourney B. Romaine, CFA, gets specific in her advice about investing in gold:
“At present gold and stock prices, we think it makes sense to invest a bit in gold. The stock market will probably take a breather as companies, finally, are forced to hire. And strong gold demand for jewelry, combined with lower mine output, should lift gold prices a bit.
“More adventurous accounts should consider buying gold stocks, given the leverage inherent in their cost structures. And several, such as Agnico-Eagle (AEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont, and small-cap Pan American Silver (PAAS), have above-average dividend yields. More growth-oriented investors might look at Goldcorp (GG), which has an average yield but the best output growth outlook in the industry.”
See all of Sigourney’s well-researched article free just by clicking its title here:

Saturday, July 27, 2013

My Stock of the Day: ACY


ACY is the first ticker from the list in my accompanying post, and it’s the identification symbol for AeroCentury Corp.
For the company’s profile at Yahoo, go to:

My 5-year Yahoo chart for ACY shows major buying opportunities near the bottom of pullbacks in 2009 and 2011, and then a rapid recovery in 2012-2013. See:

My 3-month chart suggests an up trend may be in progress for ACY. See:

A consensus of Yahoo’s stock analysts rates ACY as a Buy.
Never forget: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.
Visit my blog posts at:


AAII’s Mild-Risk Stock Selections


For suggestions of such stocks, I turn first to AAII.com to see the selections for the AAII Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, and for good reason:
As of June 30, 2013, the model’s total return for the year to date was 35.1% and its average total return for the last 10, 5, and 3 years was 22.3%, 23.2%, and 37.6%—and 63.3% for the last 12 months.
I’ve mined the ticker symbols of the model’s holdings, combined with those of companies not in the model but passing its selection criteria in June—as well as the ticker symbols of companies passing the criteria of the 3 leading stock-selection strategies on AAII’s list of 77.

My combined list of tickers in alphabetical order::
ACY, ADUS,ADY, AIQ, ALG, AOSL, APP, ARL, CBK, CPSS, CSS, CXDC, DCO, DXYN, EAC, EBF, ECTY, MERU, FDP, FLXS, GAAS, GAI, GILT, HDNG, HMNF, HOFT, HTCH, IBCP, IFMI, IMH, INOC, ISH, ISH, JCTCF, JST, KBALB, KTCC, LIWA, MDCI, MIND, MRLN, PCCC, PCMI, RCKY, RCMT, REGI, REX, ROIAK, SALM, SCVL SGA, SKYW, SMP, SGRP, SNFCA, TA, TCI, USCR, VOXX, WLFC, XRM, XRSC, ZEUS.

AAII points out that its model portfolios “are real investments with real dollars that are managed as if by an individual investor.”
It maintains a model fund portfolio, too.
For the organization’s list of benefits for members, see:

Friday, July 26, 2013

My Stock of the Day: GRZZX


Grizzly Short Fund is a bear-market hedge fund. It doesn’t trade stocks or options. More conservatively, it sells stocks short. It’s my aggressive choice for investing bear markets and for hedging sideways markets.
GRZZX gained 73.2% in resale value in market-crash 2008. Since then, my 5-year performance chart shows,
it has mostly been ignored by investors. See:

My 3-month chart shows GRZZX peaked in value in June 2013. The MACD and RSI sections at the bottom of the chart show GRZZX is signaling a buy advisory. See:

Let’s let that thought simmer while we take a fun break with Woody Allen:

How to Call a Market Top


Since it’s impossible to know the future, we need to make educated guesses by looking for repetition in securities markets past.
At Seeking Alpha, Joseph Stuber admits that “it is almost impossible to call a high in a bull market” and turns his focus on chart patterns that may better the odds of calling a top.
In doing so, he shares three charts he uses to get a feel for what the near future may bring by measuring the price performance of SPY, the exchange-traded fund that channels the Standard and Poor’s 500 Stock Average.
For myself, I prefer MACD charts as indicators of the market’s direction. They show the odds-on tops and bottoms of both market indexes and individual stocks and funds.
For a detailed and illustrated explanation of MACD, with examples, go to:

For MACD assessments, I do my charting at Yahoo!
My 5-year MACD chart at Yahoo shows the recovery of the total stock market (VTI) and the accompanying deterioration of GRZZX, the best inverse no-load mutual fund I know. At the bottom of the chart you’ll see the MACD chart and how it measured the 2008-2009 stock-market collapse and the ups and downs of VTI ever since. See:

The RSI section at the bottom of the GRZZX performance chart confirms buy-signal low points in May 2013 and again in mid-July. For an explanation of RSI, go to:

In my 3-month performance chart, you’ll see the GRZZX gain in May and June 2013 of GRZZX and the bullish bounce back of VTI since the end of June. That’s when the crossover pattern of GRZZX  signaled a probable recovery by VTI.

Now, my 3-month chart shows VTI is at the very edge of a sell signal and its RSI companion is well into sell territory.

How much credibility should we give MACD and RSI? Well, they’re indicators, not forecasts or promises. They confirm merely that it’s time for each of us to decide on our own whether or not to buy or sell or hedge.
As we all know, no one can know what the future will bring—and that we can only guess.
MACD and RSI give us nothing more than educated guesses—and that’s as good as it gets.


Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why I Like Watch Lists and Made One


I buy and sell securities through TD Ameritrade and have been doing so all the way back to the 1980s, when the company’s name was Jack White—also the name of the guy who launched the company (and a friend, of San Diego).
So, when I went looking for watch lists not long ago, I started with TD Ameritrade. Take a look:

If you need help negotiating TD’s website or with watch lists, call 1-800 454-9272.

Each TD watch list I follow provides key information I need and reduces the time I devote to daily research.
The securities I own are now on my own TD watch list, but TD has watch lists of its own—more than a dozen of them. For example, this morning:
At a glance Major ETFs shows the gold-miners GDX closed yesterday -4.94%. And:
Top 10% Gain (NASDAQ) tells me the penny stock BIDU closed +3.21%. Also:
I’ve created two newer watch lists of my own. One shows stocks with lowest p/e and another shows stocks with greatest dividend yields.

Now, let’s take a fun break:

My Stock of the Day: SKYW


AAII’s latest six-month update of its stock screens is through the end of June 2013, and once again Joseph Piotroski is at the top of the performance list of the 77 stock-selection strategies followed by AAII. His strategy’s performance is in double digits for the last 10, 5, and 3 years as well as 2013 to date (+89.3%).
Once again, this stock heads Joe’s list (by income after taxes):

My 5-month Yahoo chart for SKYW shows an excellent point of entry for bottom feeders in 2012. See:

My 3-month chart suggests another good entry point early in June 2013 and a suggestion that another up trend may be under way (through compared moving averages). See:


Wednesday, July 24, 2013

My Stock of the Day: JNJ


JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) has long been among my favorite forever stocks, tied with PG (Procter & Gamble) for favorite of the favored. Its Yahoo profile:

My 5-year Yahoo chart for JNJ shows a reasonable persistent recovery from the market collapse of 2008-2009. See:

My 3-month chart suggests JNJ is in a new up trend. See:

A consensus of Yahoo’s stock analysts rates JNJ a strong buy. See:

Never forget this: All investments and savings are gambles on the unknowable future and thus subject to loss.

You can visit my blog at:

But before we get serious, let’s take a little time out for the video of Martin & Lewis with Sonny King channeling the Ink Spots: